A decade following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that divided the country and triggered disorder, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have studied the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in academia but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners want to engage even with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unification or the status quo. Each composes two articles that aim for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and societal data, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments range over identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," said O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the concept that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they support unification but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but both parties has has important lessons to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
